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FRICE DROP A SNARE ' “
BUILD OR BUY, NOW WARNS EXPERT
By L. WARD PRINCE
President Westchester County Realty Board.
W111 houses in tile suburbs be cheamr next Spring? !.have been asked innumerable times in
the last few weeks to answer this Question. Surface signs o'er-tainly indicate the possibility. The
news was spread broadcast not long ago of a Sharp reduction in the price of lumber. We were
told that the peak had been reached and passed and that housing was on the down grade with
everything else. . ' -
Let us look at all the elements that enter into the house market, so that we may be better fit—
‘ed to answer ‘1‘33‘? (ll-19511011 for ourselves. In the first place. the muchlheralded reduction in the
price of lumber is a snare and a delusion. Prices are now about where they were ten months ago.
ant! this redhctien was based on the very top of the market. Little material was bought after the
spring increase and practically none of the leasing offered today is priced upon these high rates.
1
- The cost of a 5:01:56 Started today would be lll’I‘iE‘r than ever, even with this reduction in lumber.
onaccount or the, recent increase in wages. Am‘ther element that tends to maintainfiigh housing
prices is the causation of the money market. Np, loans are being made bv the title companies 01'
the banks. \\ hat little money filtersithrough intg the building: ‘marké‘t is held for big bonus
charges, sometimes as high as 15' per cent. ‘ _ ‘
Labor is still in the harness in the suburban building business. (londmemaze abiiost im—
procurable even at the Very high wages maintained, fiWfie’éfifi very dilficulfm maze.
MMWODIF slightly. M.— ~~*'" ' « '
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New housmg ceasemumedlately the demand lets up. There 18 no chance of an over-
production. Builders get the spirit of the market, from the news reports. If houses do not sell
_. readlly at full prices, no new ones are started. Building in \Vmesber suburbs has almost reach-
5 ed the vanishing point. - ,
4
There again we cannot get away froni the inevitable law of supply and demand. If all the _
facilities at the command of suburban buildeis were put into continuous operation the result would
not be overproduction for several years to come. The figures on the seritiisness of the shortage
and the infinitesimal effort that is being made to overcome it in the neigthrhoodfiof New York
city are so alarming and so well known by the general public that it is unnecemary to go again
into these painful details. . ,
All this sounds discouraging in the extreme. but there is some hope on the other side. §pecu—
lators have been ‘startled by the effect of the rent laws and in some caseS'have cut their prices
from ten to twenty per cent. Owners who were in the habit of raising their prices $1.900 over
night have halted and in some cases receded a bit. I cannot urge too strongly the txmeworn
adage, “Buy when the demand is slack.” ‘ ' , ‘
a
Some people are looking forward, even hapefulLv, for a business depression which would
bring about lower wages, and, therefore", lower prices and a reduced cost of flying: . This 18 fundaj
mentally a false position. Men who think that the way to safety and to Wt? 18 through
panic, and depression and low prices, are absolutely without any‘undermndmg of the present
conditions Because panicsand lack of employment in the past, throwing millions of people out
of employment, hwe'brought about lower wages and lower» cost of living, is no reason whatever
for looln'ng for such things under present conditions. ‘ , " '
The world has complepely changed. World inflation has cut the dollar in half, and no power
on earmecanvalter this fact for many years to come. Wageeare high, andjnwxso. They should
~ continue high. Under present conditions the laboring man is entitled to high was» long as he”
gives efficient service. . , - _ 1
It is true that the changes which have come about have Dreamed. a certain intoxication of
etfiavagance and waste on the part of men whoare gettmghigh wages. heyare, atthe some
time, Wient and energetic thanthey fonnefly were. bet that Is onlythemewhbleouteeme
orthénfighty changeswhicharefifiking placefm thefinanclal, WWWWM
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Norwalk Chronicler